Abstract

Abstract Predictive analytics and big data are increasingly leveraged by governments and civil society across Africa to inform both policy design and democratic accountability. Yet, their use raises vital policy challenges around data quality, regulation, transparency, privacy, and power. This paper offers a policy analysis of how predictive data is (or can be) harnessed for policy reform and democratic accountability in African states, with particular attention to Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, and Nigeria. Drawing on recent policy documents, academic analyses, civil society reports, and (Name withheld) expert commentary, the paper explores the potentials and pitfalls of using predictive tools in budgeting, public service delivery, electoral integrity, and oversight. It finds that while predictive data can improve efficiency, anticipate public needs, and detect irregularities, weak legal frameworks, infrastructural constraints, and lack of public understanding often limit their effectiveness or give rise to misuse. Key policy levers include strengthening data protection laws, ensuring algorithmic transparency and fairness, investing in institutional capacity, and developing oversight mechanisms involving civil society and legislative bodies. The paper concludes with recommendations for aligning predictive data governance with democratic norms, to ensure that technological innovation strengthens, not undermines, accountability and citizen trust.